Latest news with #Goldman Sachs
Bloomberg
2 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Trade and Fed
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney July 28th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Abby Joseph Cohen, professor at Columbia University and former Chief Investment Strategist at Goldman Sachs, brings us into the market open and talks about Fed and trade policy. Fed policymakers are largely expected to hold rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting in the face of sustained pressure from President Trump on Powell to lower borrowing costs. 2) Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, joins for an extended discussion on US stock volatility and why expectations are volatile but not volatility itself. S&P 500 contracts were little changed in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, which have become a cause of contention between the White House and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 3) Ryan Majerus, former Assistant General Counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative during the first Trump Administration, talks about who's driving the Trump administration's trade policy and what tariffs will look like August 1st. President Trump's recent trade deal announcements are light on detail, with key aspects still under negotiation and partners giving mixed signals about what they signed up for. 4) Mark Howard, Managing Director and Senior Multi-Asset Specialist at BNP Paribas, joins to discuss why today will either prove to be a "trifecta" of economic news, or a "trilemma." As the Fed meeting comes into focus in the afternoon, investors will watch for any signs of a greater openness from the Fed to easing when it next gathers in September. 5) Ari Wald, Head of Technical Analysis for Oppenheimer, talks about why the bull market is just overbought but not over. Before the Fed, GDP figures this week will offer an update on the health of the American economy in the buildup to Friday's key payrolls report. The relentless rush of big earnings continues in the US later, with Microsoft and Meta both reporting. Eric Mollo
South China Morning Post
8 hours ago
- Health
- South China Morning Post
‘Silver Yuan': China's geriatric healthcare a US$134 billion market by 2035, Goldman says
China's geriatric healthcare industry is projected to be worth 963 billion yuan (US$134 billion) over the next decade, as an expanding middle class amid a rapidly ageing population increases the need and willingness to spend, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. Wealthy Chinese consumers were likely to spend three times more than their peers on post-retirement healthcare over the next decade, the US bank said in a report published on Monday, a trend that augurs well for the growth of the so-called silver economy. Consumers with disposable assets of at least 3 million yuan were projected to increase their annual spending on healthcare by 14.3 per cent over the next decade, Goldman said. Spending by this group of wealthy pensioners may balloon fourfold from 221 billion yuan last year. The rise of the so-called silver yuan presents growth opportunities for geriatric healthcare services that were not currently covered in state health insurance policies, such as cataract surgeries, dental implants, vaccines against shingles and the respiratory syncytial virus, according to the report. Medical workers provide free care to the elderly in Liupanshui, southwest China's Guizhou province, October 14, 2021. Photo: Xinhua This group of consumers was also more likely to spend money on early screening, preventive care, and premium treatment such as specialised medications, consumables, higher-quality healthcare services, post-treatment nursing and rehabilitation, the report said.
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
Deutsche Bank pulls ECB rate cut forecast for 2025, eyes hike as next move
Deutsche Bank on Tuesday became the latest brokerage to withdraw its forecast for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, while betting the next policy move to be a hike at the end of 2026 following a tariff deal between the U.S. and EU. Last week, Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas scrapped their forecasts for rate cuts this year. HSBC reiterated that the central bank is done cutting rates. BNP expects the ECB to deliver a rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2026. The European Union and the U.S. sealed a trade deal on Sunday, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods — half the threatened rate and averting a major transatlantic trade war. "With a deal having now been reached, trade policy is less of a reason for the ECB to cut policy rates further," analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note. "Further easing is now a risk scenario." The ECB held rates steady at 2% last week and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the euro zone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing. The central bank has cut its policy rate eight times since June 2024. Other major brokers, including Morgan Stanley and UBS, have also flagged uncertainty around a September rate cut. Traders expect the ECB to cut rates twice more to around 1.85% by December. They then price a small chance of a rate hike by September 2026, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Singapore Set to Hold Policy as Economy Shows Tariff Resilience
(Bloomberg) -- Singapore's central bank will likely leave its monetary policy unchanged for the first time this year, adopting a wait-and-see approach as policymakers gauge looming US tariffs that risk weighing on growth. Budapest's Most Historic Site Gets a Controversial Rebuild San Francisco in Talks With Vanderbilt for Downtown Campus Can This Bridge Ease the Troubled US-Canadian Relationship? Trump Administration Sues NYC Over Sanctuary City Policy Fourteen of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the exchange rate rather than interest rates to stabilize prices, will maintain its settings on Wednesday. Five, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America, expect easing to continue. The MAS loosened policy in January for the first time in five years, and again in April as the case to support the economy became stronger, following US President Donald Trump's tariff threats and the ensuing global market ructions. Singapore's policy review comes ahead of the US Federal Reserve on July 31, with Chair Jerome Powell under increasing pressure from Trump to cut interest rates. The Fed is widely expected to hold steady, as it awaits clarity on the inflation impact from Trump's tariffs, amid a wave of global cuts from Canada to the UK and Australia. Forecasters expecting a hold cite Singapore's economic stability, with preliminary growth estimates this month showing the city-state dodged a technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. The faster-than-expected growth was led by manufacturing, services export and construction. Chua Hak Bin, economist at Maybank Securities Pte Ltd. sees the MAS leaving its settings unchanged through the rest of the year, 'in view of the resilient economic outlook and benign, but stabilizing core inflation.' By contrast, Kai Wei Ang, Asean economist for Bank of America NA, is predicting an easing though he reckons the decision will be a 'close call.' Ang compared the current situation with April 2016, when the economy was producing close to its potential and yet the MAS eased because core inflation was forecast to average below 2%. Like in 2016, the economy's negative output gap has narrowed but the outlook for core inflation appears to be 'more benign,' Ang said. At the same time, Singapore's real effective exchange rate is 'elevated,' he said, suggesting the central bank will 'instill its preemptive stance by flattening the slope in July, rather than wait till October.' To meet its mandate of 'medium-term price stability,' the MAS intervenes in the foreign exchange market to manage its currency within a range. It describes that process publicly, but only in general terms without providing specific figures or targets. The main components of that policy are guiding the 'slope' of the dollar's appreciation, the 'center' of that slope and the 'width' of the trading band it targets. The five analysts predicting an easing on Wednesday, for instance, expect the MAS to slightly reduce the slope of its policy band for its main Singapore dollar measure - the nominal effective exchange rate, known as S$NEER. The MAS also doesn't have an explicit inflation target, though it has previously said that a core inflation rate of just under 2% on average 'is consistent with overall price stability in the economy.' The gauge stood at 0.6% in June. Earlier this month, MAS Managing Director Chia Der Jiun said core inflation should remain subdued with a resurgence of underlying price pressures unlikely, while noting that policymakers are alert to risks on both sides. One major uncertainty is the impact of US tariffs, not only on Singapore's economy but global growth as well. Singapore was hit with a proposed 10% rate, lower than its Southeast Asian neighbors. But with trade equaling about three times its GDP, it remains exposed to any sustained slowdown in global commerce. Seven of nine economists who responded to a question about the impact of US tariffs on Singapore's monetary policy said the MAS was more likely to ease over 2025 and 2026. The same number expect the city-state to end up with a US import levy of 10% or lower, while three expect the rate to rise. The view among many monetary officials around the world is that Trump's attempt to repatriate manufacturing and rewire commerce, if enduring, may be more of a danger to growth rather than posing a threat to consumer prices. As a result, a technical recession is still possible in Singapore as the effect from businesses front-running higher US tariffs fade. 'The global outlook is uncertain,' said Philip Wee of DBS Bank Ltd. 'We will be looking out for hints of a third easing at the October review, given the central bank's base case scenario for global economic activity to slow.' --With assistance from Shinjini Datta. Burning Man Is Burning Through Cash It's Not Just Tokyo and Kyoto: Tourists Descend on Rural Japan Elon Musk's Empire Is Creaking Under the Strain of Elon Musk Confessions of an American Who Helped North Korea's Wild Remote Worker Scheme Cage-Free Eggs Are Booming in the US, Despite Cost and Trump's Efforts ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Hedge Funds Just Got Burned: Retail Traders Trigger $2.5B Short Squeeze in July
It's been a tough July for anyone shorting the riskiest corners of the U.S. stock market. According to S3 Partners, traders betting against the 50 most-shorted U.S.-listed names have racked up $2.5 billion in losses this month alonefour times the average short loss across the market. That pain is being driven by a surge in speculative buying from retail investors, many of whom are revisiting meme-stock names like Kohl's and Opendoor. A Goldman Sachs basket tracking the highest short-interest stocks in the Russell 3000 has now posted nine consecutive weeks of gains, up 33% over that stretch. By comparison, both the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 are up just 10%. Momentum like this isn't something hedge funds can ignore. Marco Iachini, senior VP at Vanda Research, said retail flows into speculative names are risingand so is trading frequency. That could help explain why short squeezes have intensified, pulling more institutional money into the mix. Retail investors are squeezing hedge funds and then forcing this upward move, Iachini said. While some strategists caution this won't repeat the scale of 2021's GameStop (NYSE:GME) saga, the breadth of the current rally could keep it alive longer than expected. At least for now, animal spirits remain strongand there's no sign of a cooldown. That said, the coming days will be a real test. Investors are staring down a heavy calendar: a Federal Reserve rate decision, earnings from several tech giants including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), and the monthly jobs report. Goldman Sachs and others have started advising clients to buy hedges, signaling institutional caution. Still, as Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 notes, once hedge funds have positions on both sideslong and shortvolatility tends to spike. That's often when the biggest moves happen. If retail traders keep pressing, the rally could stretch even furtherat least until the next catalyst hits. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
